Watford vs Charlton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Vicarage Road, Watford
The Footlab model makes Watford the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Charlton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Watford vs Charlton?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Watford (1,815) and Charlton (1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Watford have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Charlton have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-5 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Derby(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Reading(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Watford win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Charlton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Watford 1-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Charlton 1-0 Watford | Championship |
| Jan 17, 2015 | Watford 5-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2014 | Charlton 1-0 Watford | Championship |
| Apr 29, 2014 | Charlton 3-1 Watford | Championship |
| Sep 14, 2013 | Watford 1-1 Charlton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Watford score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Charlton score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Charlton | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Watford sit 7th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and Charlton sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Watford vs Charlton?
- The Footlab model makes Watford the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Charlton.
- Where and when is Watford vs Charlton played?
- Watford vs Charlton is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Vicarage Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.