Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Dynama, Minsk
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Minsk the favourite at 67%, against 23% for a draw and 10% for Bate Borisov. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov?
Dinamo Minsk starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (1,881 vs 1,653).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dinamo Minsk have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Bate Borisov have 2, 9 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Torpedo Zhodino(home) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baranovichi(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Dinamo Minsk win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Bate Borisov win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Bate Borisov 0-0 Dinamo Minsk | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk 1-1 Bate Borisov | Coppa |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Bate Borisov | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Bate Borisov 2-2 Dinamo Minsk | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Dinamo Minsk 2-1 Bate Borisov | Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Dinamo Minsk 2-1 Bate Borisov | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Bate Borisov vs Dinamo Minsk on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dinamo Minsk score 1.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bate Borisov score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Minsk | 1.6 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Bate Borisov | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dinamo Minsk sit 2nd in Premier League (36 points from 16 matches) and Bate Borisov sit 14th (14 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 13 | 36 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Minsk the favourite at 67%, against 23% for a draw and 10% for Bate Borisov.
- Where and when is Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov played?
- Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Dynama, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.