Doncaster vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 8Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Doncaster the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Rochdale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Doncaster vs Rochdale?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Doncaster (1,813) and Rochdale (1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Doncaster have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnsley(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stockport County(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Doncaster win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | Doncaster 4-3 Rochdale | League Two |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Rochdale 1-2 Doncaster | League Two |
| May 1, 2021 | Rochdale 1-2 Doncaster | League One |
| Jan 19, 2021 | Doncaster 1-0 Rochdale | League One |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Doncaster 1-1 Rochdale | League One |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Rochdale 1-1 Doncaster | League One |
Last archived meeting: Doncaster vs Rochdale on Dec 29, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Doncaster score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doncaster | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Doncaster vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Doncaster the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Rochdale.
- Where and when is Doncaster vs Rochdale played?
- Doncaster vs Rochdale is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Eco-Power Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.