Dumbarton vs Keith: prediction and stats
FA CupRound of 128Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The moreroom.com Stadium, Dumbarton
The Footlab AI model makes Dumbarton the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Keith. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dumbarton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dumbarton vs Keith?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Dumbarton (1,421) and Keith (1,421).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dumbarton vs Keith
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dumbarton
5-3-2- 21S. Honeyman
- 20Robert James Karl Cleary
- 8J. Todd
- 6O. Hartington
- 10D. Craig
- 24M. Doyle
- 3A. Omar
- 5T. Lang
- 19C. McKenna
- 34T. Robson
- 54M. Munn
Keith
Not enough data to predict the Keith lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 05:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dumbarton have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Keith have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Clydebank(away) | 0-4 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Clyde(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Banks O' Dee(home) | 3-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Huntly(away) | 0-2 | Football League - Highland League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turriff United(home) | 1-0 | Football League - Highland League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stonehaven(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Brora Rangers(away) | 0-5 | Football League - Highland League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Strathspey Thistle(home) | 2-3 | Football League - Highland League |
How many goals should we expect?
Dumbarton score 1.4 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Keith score 1.4 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Keith | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Dumbarton vs Keith?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dumbarton vs Keith?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dumbarton the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Keith.
- Where and when is Dumbarton vs Keith played?
- Dumbarton vs Keith is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The moreroom.com Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.