Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, Nilópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Nova Cidade the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Petrópolis. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Nova Cidade (1,566) and Petrópolis (1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nova Cidade have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Petrópolis have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Serrano RJ(away) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Nova Cidade win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Petrópolis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Nova Cidade 0-1 Petrópolis | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Petrópolis score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Petrópolis | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nova Cidade sit 7th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and Petrópolis sit 6th (16 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Petrópolis | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 16 |
| 7 | Nova Cidade | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis?
- The Footlab model makes Nova Cidade the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Petrópolis.
- Where and when is Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis played?
- Nova Cidade vs Petrópolis is played on October 31, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.