East Kilbride vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)K Park Training Academy, East Kilbride
The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win East Kilbride vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate East Kilbride (1,694) and Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, East Kilbride have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Cowdenbeath(away) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Montrose(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cove Rangers(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kilmarnock II(home) | 5-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Airdrie United(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Rangers U21(home) | 2-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Berwick Rangers(away) | 2-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annan Athletic(home) | 1-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | East Stirlingshire(home) | 4-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Brechin(home) | 1-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 East Kilbride win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 0-0 East Kilbride | League Two |
| May 10, 2025 | East Kilbride 3-1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | League Two |
| Oct 26, 2024 | East Kilbride 3-1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | FA Cup |
| Apr 16, 2022 | East Kilbride 0-1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | Football League - Lowland League |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3-1 East Kilbride | Football League - Lowland League |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2-1 East Kilbride | Football League - Lowland League |
Last archived meeting: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs East Kilbride on May 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
East Kilbride score 2.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic score 2.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 2.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for East Kilbride vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic.
- Where and when is East Kilbride vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic played?
- East Kilbride vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at K Park Training Academy, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.