Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Kuflink Stadium, Northfleet, Kent
The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Weston-super-Mare. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Ebbsfleet United (1,812) and Weston-super-Mare (1,829).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ebbsfleet United have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Weston-super-Mare have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cray Valley PM(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dover(home) | 2-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hampton & Richmond(home) | 3-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesham United(home) | 3-0 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gloucester City(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ebbsfleet United win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Weston-super-Mare win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United 1-3 Weston-super-Mare | National League - South |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Weston-super-Mare 1-0 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ebbsfleet United score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Weston-super-Mare score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Weston-super-Mare | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Weston-super-Mare | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?
- The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Weston-super-Mare.
- Where and when is Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare played?
- Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Kuflink Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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