Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Jaiyq. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy?
Shakhter Karagandy starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (1,548 vs 1,327).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaiyq have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Shakhter Karagandy have 14, 0 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ekibastuz(away) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(away) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tobol 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arys(home) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Jaiyq win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Shakhter Karagandy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy 3-0 Jaiyq | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Shakhter Karagandy vs Jaiyq on Jun 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jaiyq score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhter Karagandy score 2.8 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiyq | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Shakhter Karagandy | 2.8 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jaiyq sit 5th in 1. Division (27 points from 19 matches) and Shakhter Karagandy sit 1st (52 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 55 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | Jaiyq | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Jaiyq.
- Where and when is Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy played?
- Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy is played on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.