Elche vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Elche wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Elche (2,022) and Alaves (2,053).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Elche vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Alaves have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Elche wins, 1 draw, 3 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Elche 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Alaves 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Elche 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 26, 2021 | Alaves 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Alaves 0-1 Elche | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2021 | Elche 0-2 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 18th in La Liga (6 points from 8 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Elche vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Elche vs Alaves played?
- Elche vs Alaves is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.