Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Madrid wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,712 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
On Elo ratings, Real Madrid has 2,399 points and Atletico Madrid 2,306.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 5J. Bellingham
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 20Bernardo Silva
- 8F. Valverde
- 16I. Konaté
- 4D. Huijsen
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 1T. Courtois
Atletico Madrid
4-3-3- 7Lee Kang-In
- 11A. Lookman
- 19J. Álvarez
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 10Álex Baena
- 17D. Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Madrid wins, 0 draws, 3 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid | Super Cup |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (24 points from 10 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (25 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 24 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.