Match

Malaga vs Osasuna: prediction and stats

La LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga

MalagaOsasuna

The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Malaga vs Osasuna?

A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Malaga (2,053) and Osasuna (2,054).

Malaga win48 %
Draw26 %
Osasuna win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Osasuna have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Malaga
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 19, 2026Atletico Madrid(away)0-2La Liga
Aug 12, 2026Fulham(home)2-2Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026AD Ceuta FC(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Aug 6, 2026Al-Arabi SC(home)4-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 30, 2026Al-Ittihad FC(home)2-2Friendlies Clubs
Osasuna
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 8, 2026Al Ain(home)0-2Friendlies Clubs
Aug 5, 2026Napoli(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026Norwich(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026Ipswich(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026Racing Santander(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Osasuna win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 11, 2019Malaga 1-2 OsasunaSegunda División
Nov 3, 2018Osasuna 2-1 MalagaSegunda División
Jan 27, 2017Osasuna 1-1 MalagaLa Liga
Aug 19, 2016Malaga 1-1 OsasunaLa Liga
Mar 10, 2014Osasuna 0-2 MalagaLa Liga
Oct 4, 2013Malaga 0-1 OsasunaLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Osasuna on Mar 11, 2019

How many goals should we expect?

Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Malaga1.91.3311/159/15
Osasuna1.21.4210/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
19Malaga1001020

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Osasuna?
The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Osasuna.
Where and when is Malaga vs Osasuna played?
Malaga vs Osasuna is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Malaga and Osasuna

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