Elva vs FC Tallinn: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Elva linnastaadion, Elva
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for FC Tallinn. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elva vs FC Tallinn?
Elva starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,384 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elva have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; FC Tallinn have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme United II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maardu(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Elva win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 FC Tallinn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Tallinn 0-3 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 7, 2026 | Elva 2-0 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FC Tallinn 1-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Elva 1-0 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 16, 2025 | FC Tallinn 1-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 22, 2025 | Elva 1-1 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tallinn score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Tallinn | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elva sit 4th in Esiliiga A (23 points from 16 matches) and FC Tallinn sit 10th (14 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 54 | 25 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 39 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elva vs FC Tallinn?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for FC Tallinn.
- Where and when is Elva vs FC Tallinn played?
- Elva vs FC Tallinn is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Elva linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.