Union Magdalena vs Quindio: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 7Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Quindio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Quindio?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Union Magdalena (1,634) and Quindio (1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Magdalena have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Quindio have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| May 17, 2026 | Barranquilla(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(home) | 2-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Popayan(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-2 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Union Magdalena win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Quindio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Quindio 1-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Quindio 1-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Union Magdalena 0-0 Quindio | Primera B |
| May 26, 2024 | Quindio 1-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Union Magdalena 2-2 Quindio | Primera B |
| Jun 17, 2021 | Quindio 2-0 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Quindio vs Union Magdalena on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Quindio score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Quindio | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Magdalena sit 3rd in Primera B (32 points from 15 matches) and Quindio sit 4th (31 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 4 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Quindio | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 42 |
| 10 | Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Magdalena vs Quindio?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Quindio.
- Where and when is Union Magdalena vs Quindio played?
- Union Magdalena vs Quindio is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Sierra Nevada, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.