Where and when is Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ played?

Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ is played on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu, in the 2. Lig.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ: prediction and stats

2. Lig2. Lig White Group - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu, Erbaa

Erbaaspor

Aliağa FAŞ

The Footlab model makes Aliağa FAŞ the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Erbaaspor. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ?

Aliağa FAŞ starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,796 vs 1,600).

Erbaaspor win17 %

Draw22 %

Aliağa FAŞ win61 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbaaspor have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Aliağa FAŞ have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erbaaspor
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı(away)	1-3	2. Lig
Apr 19, 2026	Ankaragücü(home)	1-1	2. Lig
Apr 12, 2026	Elazığspor(away)	0-3	2. Lig
Apr 8, 2026	Adana 01 FK(home)	0-2	2. Lig
Apr 4, 2026	24 Erzincanspor(away)	2-3	2. Lig

Aliağa FAŞ
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 4, 2026	Muş Sport Klübü(away)	0-0	2. Lig
Apr 30, 2026	Muş Sport Klübü(home)	1-1	2. Lig
Apr 25, 2026	Bursaspor(home)	0-5	2. Lig
Apr 19, 2026	68 Aksaray Belediyespor(away)	1-1	2. Lig
Apr 12, 2026	Menemen FK(home)	5-0	2. Lig

How many goals should we expect?

Erbaaspor score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aliağa FAŞ score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erbaaspor	0.9	1.5	3	9/15	7/15
Aliağa FAŞ	2.1	1.7	5	8/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erbaaspor sit 15th in 2. Lig (34 points from 36 matches) and Aliağa FAŞ sit 4th (69 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Aliağa FAŞ	34	21	6	7	81	32	69
15	Erbaaspor	36	10	7	19	40	61	34

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ?: The Footlab model makes Aliağa FAŞ the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Erbaaspor.
Where and when is Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ played?: Erbaaspor vs Aliağa FAŞ is played on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu, in the 2. Lig.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.