Erbil vs Newroz: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 5, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Newroz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Erbil wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Newroz?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Erbil (1,676) and Newroz (1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erbil vs Newroz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Newroz
Not enough data to predict the Newroz lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Newroz have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Erbil wins, 0 draws, 3 Newroz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Erbil 0-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Erbil 0-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Newroz 2-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newroz score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Newroz | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 4th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Newroz sit 2nd (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
A question about Erbil vs Newroz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Newroz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Newroz.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Newroz played?
- Erbil vs Newroz is played on April 5, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.