Ethiopia vs Sudan: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba
The Footlab AI model makes Sudan the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ethiopia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sudan wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Sudan?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Ethiopia (1,389) and Sudan (1,467).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ethiopia vs Sudan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ethiopia
4-4-2- 10A. Yalew
- 10B. Belay
- 21H. Tekeste
- 5H. Sherefa
- 12A. Yesouf
- 20B. Waza
- 16Yared Bayeh Belay
- 4J. Yakob
- 14S. Yohannes
- 2R. Selalo
- 1A. Nura
Sudan
4-4-2- 20M. Eisa
- 26Aamir Abdallah
- 10Aamir Yunis Abdallah
- 25S. Barglan
- 13A. Taifour
- 10Mohamed Abdelrahman
- 6Mustafa Karshoum
- 3Mohamed Erneq
- 12Bakhit Khamis
- 25Sheddy Barglan
- 21M. Elneel
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ethiopia have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Sudan have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sudan(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mozambique(away) | 1-4 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ethiopia(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ethiopia win, 1 draw, 4 Sudan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 25, 2024 | Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Ethiopia 0-2 Sudan | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Sudan 2-3 Ethiopia | Friendlies |
| Aug 17, 2017 | Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | African Nations Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sudan score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Sudan | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ethiopia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Sudan sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Ethiopia vs Sudan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ethiopia vs Sudan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sudan the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ethiopia.
- Where and when is Ethiopia vs Sudan played?
- Ethiopia vs Sudan is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.