Kenya vs Guinea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mandela National Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab model makes Kenya the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Guinea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kenya vs Guinea?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Kenya (1,530) and Guinea (1,548).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kenya have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Guinea have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada(away) | 3-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 0-8 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Northern Ireland(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Benin(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Togo(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Niger(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Liberia(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Kenya score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guinea score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Guinea | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kenya sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 6 matches) and Guinea sit 3rd (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guinea | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kenya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kenya vs Guinea?
- The Footlab model makes Kenya the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Guinea.
- Where and when is Kenya vs Guinea played?
- Kenya vs Guinea is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mandela National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.