Kenya vs Eritrea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mandela National Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab model makes Kenya the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Eritrea. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kenya vs Eritrea?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Kenya (1,530) and Eritrea (1,451).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kenya have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Eritrea have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada(away) | 3-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 0-8 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Dec 19, 2019 | Uganda(away) | 0-3 | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Kenya win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Eritrea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2019 | Kenya 1-4 Eritrea | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Kenya score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Eritrea score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Eritrea | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kenya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kenya vs Eritrea?
- The Footlab model makes Kenya the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Eritrea.
- Where and when is Kenya vs Eritrea played?
- Kenya vs Eritrea is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mandela National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.