Madagascar vs Nigeria: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)National Sports Complex Pitch 1, Saint Pierre
The Footlab AI model makes Nigeria the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Madagascar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nigeria wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Madagascar vs Nigeria?
Nigeria starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,695 vs 1,501).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Madagascar vs Nigeria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Madagascar
4-2-3-1- 9W. Caddy
- 7R. Raveloson
- 6M. Ilaimaharitra
- 10El Hadari
- 17L. Lapoussin
- 13N. Fontaine
- 15E. Kari
- 5S. Trémoulet
- 3M. Jean-Pierre
- 22M. Acapandié
- 1G. Dupire
Nigeria
4-3-1-2- 22A. Adams
- 15M. Simon
- 4W. Ndidi
- 17A. Iwobi
- 7A. Lookman
- 4A. Adeoye
- 3S. Onyemaechi
- 6S. Ajayi
- 21C. Bassey
- 6E. Fernandez
- 1M. Okoye
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Madagascar have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Nigeria have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Russia(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Madagascar win, 0 draws, 1 Nigeria win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 30, 2019 | Madagascar 2-0 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Nigeria vs Madagascar on Sep 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Madagascar score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Nigeria score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madagascar | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Nigeria | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Madagascar sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (1 point from 2 matches) and Nigeria sit 2nd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Madagascar vs Nigeria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Madagascar vs Nigeria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nigeria the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Madagascar.
- Where and when is Madagascar vs Nigeria played?
- Madagascar vs Nigeria is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at National Sports Complex Pitch 1, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.