Eritrea vs South Africa: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Cicero Stadium, Asmara
The Footlab model makes South Africa the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Eritrea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eritrea vs South Africa?
South Africa starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,642 vs 1,451).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eritrea have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; South Africa have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Dec 19, 2019 | Uganda(away) | 0-3 | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Jamaica(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Nicaragua(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Eritrea score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; South Africa score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eritrea | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| South Africa | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eritrea vs South Africa?
- The Footlab model makes South Africa the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Eritrea.
- Where and when is Eritrea vs South Africa played?
- Eritrea vs South Africa is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Cicero Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.