Kenya vs South Africa: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationGroup stage · Matchday 4Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mandela National Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab AI model makes South Africa the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Kenya. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 6,082 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kenya vs South Africa?
South Africa starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,653 vs 1,524).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kenya vs South Africa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kenya
4-4-2- 11W. Wilson
- 14M. Olunga
- 19J. Ochieng
- 20A. Tera
- 10A. Wilson
- 8Duke Ooga Abuya
- 16R. Onyango
- 5F. Odhiambo
- 20M. Okwaro
- 4M. Kibwage
- 1S. Faruk
South Africa
4-2-3-1- 12I. Rayners
- 13S. Sithole
- 7O. Appollis
- 10R. Mofokeng
- 4T. Mokoena
- 8T. Moremi
- 21I. Okon
- 24O. Makhanya
- 2T. Matuludi
- 6A. Modiba
- 1R. Williams
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 01:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kenya have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; South Africa have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | South Africa(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Guinea(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eritrea(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Egypt(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Eritrea(away) | 5-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Guinea(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Canada(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Kenya wins, 1 draw, 0 South Africa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | South Africa 2-2 Kenya | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: South Africa vs Kenya on Nov 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kenya score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; South Africa score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| South Africa | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kenya sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (2 points from 3 matches) and South Africa sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
A question about Kenya vs South Africa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kenya vs South Africa?
- The Footlab AI model makes South Africa the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Kenya.
- Where and when is Kenya vs South Africa played?
- Kenya vs South Africa is played on November 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mandela National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.