Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig played?

Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig is played on September 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 11Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue

Erzgebirge Aue

BSG Chemie Leipzig

The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for BSG Chemie Leipzig. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Erzgebirge Aue (1,840) and BSG Chemie Leipzig (1,799).

Erzgebirge Aue win46 %

Draw25 %

BSG Chemie Leipzig win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzgebirge Aue have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; BSG Chemie Leipzig have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erzgebirge Aue
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-4	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 9, 2026	BFC Preussen(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 6, 2026	BFC Dynamo(home)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	2-0	Regionalliga - Nordost

BSG Chemie Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Magdeburg II(away)	0-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 14, 2026	FC Carl Zeiss Jena(home)	0-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 8, 2026	RSV Eintracht(away)	1-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 5, 2026	Hallescher FC(home)	0-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 1, 2026	BFC Dynamo(away)	0-2	Regionalliga - Nordost

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Erzgebirge Aue win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 BSG Chemie Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 22, 2023	BSG Chemie Leipzig 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Erzgebirge Aue on Jul 22, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Erzgebirge Aue score 2.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; BSG Chemie Leipzig score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erzgebirge Aue	2.5	1.8	4	10/15	12/15
BSG Chemie Leipzig	1.1	1.3	2	6/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th in Regionalliga - Nordost (10 points from 5 matches) and BSG Chemie Leipzig sit 18th (1 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erzgebirge Aue	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
18	BSG Chemie Leipzig	6	0	1	5	1	8	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for BSG Chemie Leipzig.
Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig played?: Erzgebirge Aue vs BSG Chemie Leipzig is played on September 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.