ES Hammam-Sousse vs ES Sahel: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, Hammam-Sousse
The Footlab model makes ES Hammam-Sousse the favourite at 38%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for ES Sahel. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs ES Sahel?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate ES Hammam-Sousse (1,732) and ES Sahel (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Hammam-Sousse have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; ES Sahel have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 2 |
| May 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | Sfax Railways(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Kerkennah(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Tunis(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ES Hammam-Sousse win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 ES Sahel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | ES Sahel 2-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-5 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 23, 2013 | ES Hammam-Sousse 1-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 25, 2012 | ES Sahel 5-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| May 2, 2012 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 4, 2011 | ES Sahel 3-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Sahel vs ES Hammam-Sousse on Jan 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
ES Hammam-Sousse score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; ES Sahel score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| ES Sahel | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Hammam-Sousse sit 7th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and ES Sahel sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Hammam-Sousse vs ES Sahel?
- The Footlab model makes ES Hammam-Sousse the favourite at 38%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for ES Sahel.
- Where and when is ES Hammam-Sousse vs ES Sahel played?
- ES Hammam-Sousse vs ES Sahel is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.