Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Hédi-Enneifer, Le Bardo
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 37%, against 36% for a draw and 27% for Stade Tunisien. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis?
ES Tunis starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (2,077 vs 1,896).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Tunisien have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; ES Tunis have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AS Gabes(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Club Africain(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade Tunisien win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 ES Tunis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 1-0 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 3, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Super Cup |
| Jun 1, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Cup |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 0-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | ES Tunis 2-2 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Tunis vs Stade Tunisien on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Tunisien score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Tunisien | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Tunisien sit 8th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and ES Tunis sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Stade Tunisien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 37%, against 36% for a draw and 27% for Stade Tunisien.
- Where and when is Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis played?
- Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Hédi-Enneifer, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.