Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Hédi-Enneifer, Le Bardo
The Footlab AI model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Stade Tunisien. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis?
ES Tunis starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,880).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stade Tunisien
4-2-3-1- 7W. Ouerghemmi
- 34Mame Thioune
- 6P. Diop
- 21Yusuf Touré
- 14Salifou Tapsoba
- 12Y. Oumarou
- 3A. Saihi
- 24R. Derbali
- 25S. Sghaier
- 19Fedi Abdi
- 22N. Farhati
ES Tunis
4-3-3- 7I. Faraj
- 27H. Mastouri
- 11Y. Belaïli
- 8H. Rafia
- 16J. Castillo
- 21A. Konaté
- 25R. Chikhaoui
- 12N. Laifi
- 13M. Dräger
- 6H. Jelassi
- 32B. Ben Saïd
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 05:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Tunisien have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; ES Tunis have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | ES Hammam-Sousse(away) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AS Gabes(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Olympique Béja(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Marsa(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade Tunisien win, 1 draw, 4 ES Tunis wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 1-0 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 3, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Super Cup |
| Jun 1, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-0 Stade Tunisien | Cup |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 0-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | ES Tunis 2-2 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Tunis vs Stade Tunisien on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Tunisien score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; ES Tunis score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Tunisien | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| ES Tunis | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Tunisien sit 9th in Ligue 1 (7 points from 4 matches) and ES Tunis sit 1st (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
A question about Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis?
- The Footlab AI model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Stade Tunisien.
- Where and when is Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis played?
- Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Hédi-Enneifer, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.