Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mardin 1969. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Esenler Erokspor (1,906) and Mardin 1969 (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esenler Erokspor have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Mardin 1969 have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sarıyer(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 24, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Boluspor(away) | 3-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Antalyaspor(home) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Muş Sport Klübü(home) | 2-1 | 2. Lig |
| May 4, 2026 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor(home) | 0-0 | 2. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Esenler Erokspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mardin 1969 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | Esenler Erokspor 3-0 Mardin 1969 | 3. Lig - Group 3 |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Mardin 1969 1-1 Esenler Erokspor | 3. Lig - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 on Feb 26, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mardin 1969 score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Mardin 1969 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esenler Erokspor sit 11th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Mardin 1969 sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mardin 1969 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Esenler Erokspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
- The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mardin 1969.
- Where and when is Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 played?
- Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.