Guimaraes vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alverca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,133) and Alverca (2,138).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guimaraes vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Guimaraes wins, 1 draw, 1 Alverca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-1 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Alverca 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 15th in Primeira Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Alverca sit 8th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Guimaraes vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Alverca played?
- Guimaraes vs Alverca is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.