Guimaraes vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Alverca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,080) and Alverca (2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alverca have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Guimaraes win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alverca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-1 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Alverca 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Alverca | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 9th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Alverca sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Alverca?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Alverca played?
- Guimaraes vs Alverca is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.