Estoril vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab AI model makes Estoril the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estoril wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Nacional?
On Elo ratings, Estoril has 2,036 points and Nacional 2,005.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estoril vs Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estoril
4-2-3-1- 14Y. Begraoui
- 12João Carvalho
- 10J. Holsgrove
- 44M. Robin
- 5A. Tsoungui
- 7André Lacximicant
- 2Ricard Sánchez
- 21R. Jurišić
- 6Xavi Sintes
- 15Isma Sierra
- 1Joel Robles
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Nacional have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Estoril wins, 2 draws, 1 Nacional win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nacional 2-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Nacional 0-1 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Estoril 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Nacional 2-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Estoril 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2021 | Nacional 1-2 Estoril | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 18th in Primeira Liga (2 points from 8 matches) and Nacional sit 16th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
A question about Estoril vs Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estoril the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Nacional played?
- Estoril vs Nacional is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.