Estoril vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Nacional?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Estoril (1,986) and Nacional (1,989).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Nacional have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Estoril win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nacional 2-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Nacional 0-1 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Estoril 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Nacional 2-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Estoril 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2021 | Nacional 1-2 Estoril | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 15th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and Nacional sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Nacional played?
- Estoril vs Nacional is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.