Guimaraes vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,394 Elo points against 2,080 — a 313-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Sporting CP have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Guimaraes win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sporting CP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP 3-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2026 | Sporting CP 5-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Sporting CP 1-2 Guimaraes | Taça da Liga |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Guimaraes 1-4 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Guimaraes 4-4 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 9th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Sporting CP sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Sporting CP played?
- Guimaraes vs Sporting CP is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.