Benfica vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,846 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,429 Elo points against 1,998, a 431-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 09:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Casa Pia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Benfica wins, 2 draws, 1 Casa Pia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (19 points from 8 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Casa Pia played?
- Benfica vs Casa Pia is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.