Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Estudiantes de Merida FC the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UCV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Estudiantes de Merida FC (1,625) and UCV (1,677).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estudiantes de Merida FC have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; UCV have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Puerto Cabello(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academia Anzoátegui(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rayo Zuliano(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Zamora FC(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Caracas FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Zamora FC(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caracas FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Metropolitanos FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Monagas SC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Trujillanos FC(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Estudiantes de Merida FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 UCV win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | UCV 1-1 Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Estudiantes de Merida FC 0-0 UCV | Primera División |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCV 2-1 Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División |
| Sep 14, 2024 | UCV 3-1 Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División |
| Mar 19, 2024 | Estudiantes de Merida FC 0-1 UCV | Primera División |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Estudiantes de Merida FC 2-0 UCV | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estudiantes de Merida FC score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; UCV score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| UCV | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estudiantes de Merida FC sit 6th in Primera División (20 points from 13 matches) and UCV sit 4th (23 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | UCV | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 23 |
| 4 | UCV | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 14 | UCV | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV?
- The Footlab model makes Estudiantes de Merida FC the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UCV.
- Where and when is Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV played?
- Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.