Where and when is Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. played?

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona, La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Estudiantes L.P.

Gimnasia M.

The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 61%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.?

Estudiantes L.P. starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,962 vs 1,862).

Estudiantes L.P. win61 %

Draw25 %

Gimnasia M. win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estudiantes L.P. have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Gimnasia M. have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Estudiantes L.P.
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	U. Catolica(away)	3-0	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 15, 2026	Gimnasia L.P.(home)	4-0	Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 12, 2026	U. Catolica(home)	1-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Deportivo Riestra(away)	0-2	Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 5, 2026	Boca Juniors(away)	0-1	Liga Profesional Argentina

Gimnasia M.
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Gimnasia L.P.(away)	3-2	Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 18, 2026	Talleres Cordoba(home)	3-1	Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 9, 2026	Instituto Cordoba(away)	0-1	Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 1, 2026	Union Santa Fe(home)	2-0	Liga Profesional Argentina
Jul 28, 2026	San Lorenzo(away)	0-1	Liga Profesional Argentina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Estudiantes L.P. win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gimnasia M. win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 18, 2026	Gimnasia M. 1-2 Estudiantes L.P.	Liga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: Gimnasia M. vs Estudiantes L.P. on Mar 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Estudiantes L.P. score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia M. score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes L.P.	1.3	0.7	7	3/15	4/15
Gimnasia M.	1.2	1.1	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st in Liga Profesional Argentina (31 points from 16 matches) and Gimnasia M. sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	19	7	31
2	Gimnasia M.	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
10	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	7	5	6
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	14	22	19

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.?: The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 61%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Gimnasia M..
Where and when is Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. played?: Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.