Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab model makes Etincelles the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Etincelles (1,670) and Etoile de l'Est (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Etoile de l'Est have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Marines(away) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 7, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 1-4 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Bugesera(home) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 4, 2024 | Police(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Marines(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Amagaju(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Gorilla(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Etincelles win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Etoile de l'Est win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Etincelles 1-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Etoile de l'Est 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Etincelles 3-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Nov 24, 2021 | Etoile de l'Est 4-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est on Feb 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Etoile de l'Est score 0.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Etincelles | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 32 | 40 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est?
- The Footlab model makes Etincelles the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est played?
- Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.