Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 0-0. If Etincelles wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,028 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Etincelles (1,595) and Etoile de l'Est (1,547).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 01:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Etoile de l'Est have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | APR(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Etincelles win, 1 draw, 2 Etoile de l'Est wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Etincelles 1-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Etoile de l'Est 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Etincelles 3-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Nov 24, 2021 | Etoile de l'Est 4-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est on Feb 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Etoile de l'Est score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.8 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etincelles sit 16th in National Soccer League (7 points from 7 matches) and Etoile de l'Est sit 13th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Etoile de l'Est | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Etincelles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est?
- The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est played?
- Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.