Everton vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Everton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (2,377 vs 2,110).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Arsenal have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lille(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Everton win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Arsenal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Arsenal 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Everton 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Everton 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Arsenal 0-0 Everton | Premier League |
| May 19, 2024 | Arsenal 2-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Everton 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Everton sit 4th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Everton.
- Where and when is Everton vs Arsenal played?
- Everton vs Arsenal is played on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.