Leeds vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leeds wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Sunderland?
Leeds starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (2,208 vs 2,098).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leeds vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 18W. Isidor
- 27N. Sadiki
- 10N. Angulo
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 12T. Meunier
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 32T. Hume
- 17Reinildo
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leeds wins, 3 draws, 1 Sunderland win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sunderland 0-1 Leeds | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Leeds 0-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sunderland 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Leeds 2-1 Sunderland | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Sunderland 2-2 Leeds | Championship |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Leeds 0-0 Sunderland | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 7th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Sunderland sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
A question about Leeds vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Sunderland played?
- Leeds vs Sunderland is played on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.