Tottenham vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Tottenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tottenham vs Manchester United?
Manchester United starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,224 vs 2,118).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tottenham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Manchester United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Tottenham win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Manchester United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 21, 2025 | Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United | UEFA Europa League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United | League Cup |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Manchester United 0-3 Tottenham | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Tottenham on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tottenham score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tottenham sit 18th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Manchester United sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Tottenham.
- Where and when is Tottenham vs Manchester United played?
- Tottenham vs Manchester United is played on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.