Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Dongen. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen?
Excelsior Maassluis starts as the favourite with a 233-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,622).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior Maassluis
4-3-3- 27D. Plank
- 17D. Slagveer
- 9B. Wennekers
- 30Y. Hamd
- 8J. Udenhout
- 21N. Nagtegaal
- 24D. Lopes Varela
- 12B. Riley
- 4D. Heuvelman
- 29S. Smits
- 16K. El Fakiri
Dongen
4-3-3- 17M. van Bree
- 15A. Sesay
- 11R. Siemerink
- 10F. Kamaçi
- 8T. Avontuur
- 4T. Martens
- 6L. Hultermans
- 14S. Spijkers
- 12J. Gerrits
- 20P. Scheerlinck
- 22S. Heijstee
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior Maassluis have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Dongen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Vvsb(away) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Blauw Geel(home) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 2-0 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 5-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 0-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Poortugaal(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UNA(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Blauw Geel(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior Maassluis score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Dongen score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Maassluis | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Dongen | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior Maassluis sit 4th in Derde Divisie (20 points from 9 matches) and Dongen sit 8th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Dongen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 13 |
A question about Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Dongen.
- Where and when is Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen played?
- Excelsior Maassluis vs Dongen is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Dijkpolder, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.