Extremadura 1924 vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Extremadura 1924 the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Extremadura 1924 vs UD Ourense?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Extremadura 1924 (1,995) and UD Ourense (1,977).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Extremadura 1924 have 9 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats; UD Ourense have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | CD Coria(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Linares Deportivo(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | La Unión Atlético(home) | 4-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Conquense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Reddis(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 9, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Extremadura 1924 score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extremadura 1924 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| UD Ourense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Extremadura 1924 vs UD Ourense?
- The Footlab model makes Extremadura 1924 the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense.
- Where and when is Extremadura 1924 vs UD Ourense played?
- Extremadura 1924 vs UD Ourense is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.