Barakaldo vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barakaldo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Mérida AD?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,924) and Mérida AD (1,885).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barakaldo vs Mérida AD
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barakaldo
4-3-3- 19Ángel Troncho
- 20Okolo
- 11Carlos Mattheus
- 8Julen Huidobro
- 15I. Jimenez
- 21X. Fernandez
- 17Pablo Trigueros
- 3Ander Zoilo
- 5Aritz Muguruza
- 4O. Marotias
- 13Gaizka Campos
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 21Raúl Beneit
- 19D. Sandoval
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 23Geovanny Almeida
- 8Martín Solar
- 2Alejandro Agustín
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 16Fito
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 1A. Csenterics
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Extremadura 1924(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-5 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 3-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Barakaldo win, 0 draws, 1 Mérida AD win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Barakaldo 2-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Mérida AD 1-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Barakaldo vs Mérida AD on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Mérida AD | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 17th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (6 points from 7 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
A question about Barakaldo vs Mérida AD?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Mérida AD played?
- Barakaldo vs Mérida AD is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.