Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima
The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Fátima (1,803) and Benfica Castelo Branco (1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Eléctrico(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Samora Correir(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Peniche(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fátima win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Benfica Castelo Branco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima 4-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 0-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 25, 2019 | Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fátima score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.