FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, Arequipa
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Garcilaso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate FBC Melgar (1,751) and Deportivo Garcilaso (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FBC Melgar have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Deportivo Garcilaso have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FBC Melgar win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Apr 18, 2025 | FBC Melgar 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Nov 3, 2024 | FBC Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| May 25, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-3 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar on Apr 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FBC Melgar sit 5th in Primera División (28 points from 17 matches) and Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Where and when is FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
- FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Sporting CristalvsComerciantes Unidos
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza LimavsAtletico Grau
- Oct 17, 2026Sport HuancayovsCusco
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUniversitario
- Oct 17, 2026CiencianovsUTC Cajamarca
- Oct 17, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsADT
- Oct 17, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Boys
- Oct 17, 2026FC CajamarcavsUCV Moquegua