Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Atletico Grau. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
Alianza Lima starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,818 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Lima have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Grau have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alianza Lima win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atletico Grau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atletico Grau 0-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Alianza Lima 2-1 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| May 10, 2025 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Atletico Grau 1-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico Grau | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Lima sit 1st in Primera División (40 points from 17 matches) and Atletico Grau sit 16th (16 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Atletico Grau.
- Where and when is Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau played?
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Sporting CristalvsComerciantes Unidos
- Oct 17, 2026FBC MelgarvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 17, 2026Sport HuancayovsCusco
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUniversitario
- Oct 17, 2026CiencianovsUTC Cajamarca
- Oct 17, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsADT
- Oct 17, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Boys
- Oct 17, 2026FC CajamarcavsUCV Moquegua