Alianza Atletico vs Universitario: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Universitario. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
Universitario starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,807 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Atletico have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Universitario have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alianza Atletico win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Universitario win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Universitario 1-2 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 0-2 Universitario | Primera División |
| May 11, 2025 | Universitario 0-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 0-3 Universitario | Primera División |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Universitario 1-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jul 4, 2023 | Universitario 2-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universitario vs Alianza Atletico on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Atletico sit 8th in Primera División (21 points from 17 matches) and Universitario sit 4th (29 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitario | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 7 | Universitario | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Universitario.
- Where and when is Alianza Atletico vs Universitario played?
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Sporting CristalvsComerciantes Unidos
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza LimavsAtletico Grau
- Oct 17, 2026FBC MelgarvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 17, 2026Sport HuancayovsCusco
- Oct 17, 2026CiencianovsUTC Cajamarca
- Oct 17, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsADT
- Oct 17, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Boys
- Oct 17, 2026FC CajamarcavsUCV Moquegua