FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
The Footlab model makes FC Cajamarca the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for UCV Moquegua. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate FC Cajamarca (1,568) and UCV Moquegua (1,607).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Cajamarca have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; UCV Moquegua have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atletico Grau(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Universitario(home) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 4-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FBC Melgar(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 FC Cajamarca win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 UCV Moquegua win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | UCV Moquegua 2-1 FC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Nov 2, 2025 | FC Cajamarca 2-0 UCV Moquegua | Segunda División |
| Oct 26, 2025 | UCV Moquegua 2-1 FC Cajamarca | Segunda División |
| Sep 6, 2025 | FC Cajamarca 2-1 UCV Moquegua | Segunda División |
| Aug 2, 2025 | UCV Moquegua 2-0 FC Cajamarca | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: UCV Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Cajamarca score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; UCV Moquegua score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
| UCV Moquegua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Cajamarca sit 15th in Primera División (17 points from 17 matches) and UCV Moquegua sit 14th (18 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | UCV Moquegua | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | UCV Moquegua | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 29 | 25 |
| 13 | FC Cajamarca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 15 | UCV Moquegua | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
- The Footlab model makes FC Cajamarca the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for UCV Moquegua.
- Where and when is FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua played?
- FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 17, 2026Alianza LimavsAtletico Grau
- Oct 17, 2026FBC MelgarvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 17, 2026Sport HuancayovsCusco
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUniversitario
- Oct 17, 2026CiencianovsUTC Cajamarca
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- Oct 17, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Boys