Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Sporting Cristal starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,598).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Cristal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Comerciantes Unidos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Universitario(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sporting Cristal win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Comerciantes Unidos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-4 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Sporting Cristal 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| May 25, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Sporting Cristal 0-2 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sporting Cristal on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Cristal score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Cristal sit 12th in Primera División (19 points from 17 matches) and Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sporting Cristal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 29 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Comerciantes Unidos.
- Where and when is Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza LimavsAtletico Grau
- Oct 17, 2026FBC MelgarvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 17, 2026Sport HuancayovsCusco
- Oct 17, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUniversitario
- Oct 17, 2026CiencianovsUTC Cajamarca
- Oct 17, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsADT
- Oct 17, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Boys
- Oct 17, 2026FC CajamarcavsUCV Moquegua