Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim played?

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

The Footlab model makes 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?

A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,960) and 1. FC Heidenheim (1,968).

FC St. Pauli win33 %

Draw25 %

1. FC Heidenheim win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; 1. FC Heidenheim have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

1. FC Heidenheim
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	SSV Jeddeloh(away)	2-5	DFB Pokal
Aug 18, 2026	Bayern München(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Hertha BSC(away)	1-4	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(home)	4-3	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	4-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC St. Pauli win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 1. FC Heidenheim win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Dec 13, 2025	FC St. Pauli 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim	Bundesliga
Jan 18, 2025	1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Aug 25, 2024	FC St. Pauli 0-2 1. FC Heidenheim	Bundesliga
Apr 8, 2023	1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Oct 1, 2022	FC St. Pauli 0-0 1. FC Heidenheim	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; 1. FC Heidenheim score 2.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
1. FC Heidenheim	2.5	1.9	2	11/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and 1. FC Heidenheim sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	1. FC Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?: The Footlab model makes 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim played?: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.