Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden played?

FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

Dynamo Dresden

The Footlab model makes Dynamo Dresden the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden?

A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,962) and Dynamo Dresden (2,026).

FC St. Pauli win36 %

Draw26 %

Dynamo Dresden win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Dynamo Dresden have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

Dynamo Dresden
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Westfalia Rhynern(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 16, 2026	SV Darmstadt 98(home)	1-0	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	1. FC Nürnberg(away)	0-3	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Union Berlin(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Energie Cottbus(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC St. Pauli win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Dynamo Dresden win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 12, 2022	Dynamo Dresden 1-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2021	Dynamo Dresden 2-3 FC St. Pauli	DFB Pokal
Oct 3, 2021	FC St. Pauli 3-0 Dynamo Dresden	2. Bundesliga
Feb 14, 2020	FC St. Pauli 0-0 Dynamo Dresden	2. Bundesliga
Aug 31, 2019	Dynamo Dresden 3-3 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
May 3, 2019	Dynamo Dresden 2-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Dynamo Dresden vs FC St. Pauli on Mar 12, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Dynamo Dresden score 2.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
Dynamo Dresden	2.8	0.9	8	5/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and Dynamo Dresden sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Dynamo Dresden	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden?: The Footlab model makes Dynamo Dresden the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden played?: FC St. Pauli vs Dynamo Dresden is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.