Groningen vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Willem II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs Willem II?
Groningen starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,944 vs 1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Groningen win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | Willem II 1-3 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Groningen 2-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Willem II 1-1 Groningen | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Willem II 1-3 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Groningen 0-0 Willem II | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Groningen 1-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Willem II vs Groningen on Feb 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 5th in Eredivisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Willem II sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Groningen vs Willem II played?
- Groningen vs Willem II is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.