Finland U21 vs Spain U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 18Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Helsingin olympiastadion, Helsingfors
The Footlab model makes Finland U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Spain U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finland U21 vs Spain U21?
Spain U21 starts as the favourite with a 167-point Elo edge (1,778 vs 1,611).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finland U21 have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Spain U21 have 13, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Norway U21(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden U21(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Cyprus U21(home) | 3-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | San Marino U21(away) | 8-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kosovo U21(home) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Kosovo U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Cyprus U21(away) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | San Marino U21(home) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Finland U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Finland U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Spain U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Spain U21 2-1 Finland U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Spain U21 vs Finland U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Finland U21 score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Spain U21 score 3.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland U21 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Spain U21 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finland U21 sit 2nd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (16 points from 7 matches) and Spain U21 sit 1st (21 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain U21 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Finland U21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finland U21 vs Spain U21?
- The Footlab model makes Finland U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Spain U21.
- Where and when is Finland U21 vs Spain U21 played?
- Finland U21 vs Spain U21 is played on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Helsingin olympiastadion, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 31, 2026Latvia U211-3Northern Ireland U21
- Mar 31, 2026Georgia U214-1Malta U21
- Mar 31, 2026Greece U210-2Germany U21
- Sep 24, 2026San Marino U21vsKosovo U21
- Sep 24, 2026Belgium U21vsBelarus U21
- Sep 25, 2026Azerbaijan U21vsCzechia U21
- Sep 25, 2026Bulgaria U21vsPortugal U21
- Sep 25, 2026Cyprus U21vsRomania U21