Where and when is San Marino U21 vs Spain U21 played?

San Marino U21 vs Spain U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

San Marino U21 vs Spain U21: prediction and stats

UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle

San Marino U21

Spain U21

The Footlab model makes Spain U21 the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for San Marino U21. The most likely score is 0-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win San Marino U21 vs Spain U21?

Spain U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,778 Elo points against 1,169, a 609-point gap.

San Marino U21 win9 %

Draw14 %

Spain U21 win77 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marino U21 have 0 wins, 0 draws and 15 defeats; Spain U21 have 13, 1 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

San Marino U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Mar 31, 2026	Romania U21(away)	0-3	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 26, 2026	Finland U21(home)	0-8	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Cyprus U21(home)	0-5	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 14, 2025	Spain U21(away)	0-7	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Kosovo U21(away)	0-7	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Spain U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Mar 31, 2026	Kosovo U21(home)	2-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 27, 2026	Cyprus U21(away)	7-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Romania U21(away)	2-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 14, 2025	San Marino U21(home)	7-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Finland U21(home)	2-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 San Marino U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Spain U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 14, 2025	Spain U21 7-0 San Marino U21	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Last archived meeting: Spain U21 vs San Marino U21 on Nov 14, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

San Marino U21 score 0.1 and concede 5.3 goals per match over their last 15; Spain U21 score 3.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
San Marino U21	0.1	5.3	0	1/15	13/15
Spain U21	3.2	0.9	7	8/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

San Marino U21 sit 6th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (0 points from 7 matches) and Spain U21 sit 1st (21 points from 7 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spain U21	7	7	0	0	26	2	21
6	San Marino U21	7	0	0	7	0	39	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for San Marino U21 vs Spain U21?: The Footlab model makes Spain U21 the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for San Marino U21.
Where and when is San Marino U21 vs Spain U21 played?: San Marino U21 vs Spain U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.