Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,867).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortuna Sittard have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fortuna Sittard win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 NEC Nijmegen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 3-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 19, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortuna Sittard score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortuna Sittard sit 8th in Eredivisie (4 points from 3 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.